The 2012 Thanksgiving Day
holiday period begins at 6:00 p.m., Wednesday, November 21, and ends at 11:59
p.m., Sunday, November 25. The NSC estimate of traffic fatalities for this 4.25-day
holiday period is 451 deaths with a
90% confidence interval (C.I.) of 384
to 528 deaths. Nonfatal medically
consulted injuries, i.e. injuries serious enough that a medical professional
was consulted, are estimated at 48,300 with a range of 41,100 to 56,500. The Thanksgiving
Day holiday period is always 4.25 days in length. The estimated fatality total for
2012 is 12% less than the average actual number of fatalities (512) that occurred
during the previous six Thanksgiving Day holiday periods for which data are
available. An evaluation of recent Thanksgiving Day holiday period estimates is
presented in Table 1.
Table 1. Evaluation of Recent Thanksgiving Day Holiday Period
Estimates
|
Year
|
Estimate
|
90% Confidence Interval
|
Actual
|
|
2005
|
610
|
505-735
|
605
|
|
2006
|
555
|
500-615
|
623
|
|
2007
|
564
|
499-635
|
542
|
|
2008
|
479
|
415-551
|
484
|
|
2009
|
447
|
392-508
|
401
|
|
2010
|
441
|
378-513
|
417
|
Studies have shown that seat
belts, when used, are 45% effective in preventing fatalities among front-seat
passenger car occupants. Although the reduction in the risk of fatal injury
from wearing seat belts is higher for light-truck occupants at 50%, the lower
figure for passenger car occupants is used in the calculations here as the more
conservative measure. The most recent data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting
System (FARS) indicate that seat belt use by fatally injured passenger car and
light truck occupants was 44.8%. Based
on this information it is estimated that 165
person’s lives may be saved this Thanksgiving Day holiday period because they
will wear their safety belts and an additional 112 lives could be saved
if all wore safety belts.
The average number of
traffic fatalities during the six most recent Thanksgiving Day holiday periods
was 9.8% higher than similar
non-holiday periods (512 vs. 466 deaths). The difference is not statistically
significant.
The terms used in the above
discussion were chosen carefully to reflect the level of accuracy of the
quantities involved. Estimate is used because the fatality figures are
calculated approximately, as opposed to the precision of calculation inferred
by the use of the word predict. May is used to indicate the
figures express a contingency, whereas will is used to express something
that may be expected or is supposed to occur.
Details of the estimating
methodology and a discussion of holiday deaths can be viewed here.
The Thanksgiving Holiday "Click It or Ticket" campaign, running from Nov. 12-26, raises awareness and continues to reduce safety belt fatalities on America's roads. Safety belts are the most
effective safety feature ever invented and have helped save thousands of lives. Remember to wear your safetybelt this Thanksgiving as law enforcement agencies across the country are prepared to ticket anyone not buckled up. Buckle up, every trip, every time, every vehicle, every position.
To learn more about the
"Click It or Ticket" campaign and to help spread the word, click here.