Christmas Day 2011 and New Year’s Day 2012 Holiday Period Traffic Fatality Estimates 

Christmas, 2011 

The 2011 Christmas Day holiday period begins at 6:00 p.m., Friday, Dec. 23, and ends at 11:59 p.m., Monday, Dec. 26. Our estimate of traffic fatalities for this 3.25-day holiday period is 287 deaths with a 90% confidence interval (C.I.) of 220 to 365 deaths. Medically consulted injuries are estimated at 28,700 with a range of 22,000 to 36,500. A medically consulted injury is an injury serious enough that a medical professional was consulted. Medically consulted injuries are not comparable to previous disabling injury estimates. An evaluation of recent Christmas Day holiday period estimates is presented in Table 1 (actual FARS data for 2010 is not yet available). 

Table 1. Evaluation of Recent Christmas Day Holiday Period Estimates

Studies have shown that safety belts are 45% effective in preventing fatalities. Although the reduction in the risk of fatal injury from wearing safety belts is higher for light-truck occupants at 50%, the lower figure for passenger car occupants is used in the calculations here as the more conservative measure. The most recent data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) indicate that safety belt use by fatally injured passenger car and light truck occupants was 43.4%. Based on this information it is estimated that 102 person’s lives may be saved this Christmas Day holiday period because they will wear their safety belts and an additional 73 lives could be saved if all wore safety belts. 

The average number of traffic fatalities during the six most recent 3.25 day Christmas Day holiday periods was 3.1% lower than similar non-holiday periods (376 vs. 388 deaths). The difference is not statistically significant. 

Christmas detail 

New Year’s, 2012 

The 2012 New Year’s Day holiday period begins at 6:00 p.m., Friday, Dec. 30, 2011 and ends at 11:59 p.m., Monday, Jan. 2, 2012. Our estimate of traffic fatalities for this 3.25-day holiday period is 297 deaths with a 90% confidence interval (C.I.) of 249 to 353 deaths. Medically consulted injuries are estimated at 29,700 with a range of 24,900 to 35,300. A medically consulted injury is an injury serious enough that a medical professional was consulted. Medically consulted injuries are not comparable to previous disabling injury estimates. An evaluation of recent New Year’s Day holiday period estimates is presented in Table 2 (actual FARS data for 2010 is not yet available).  

Table 2. Evaluation of Recent New Year’s Day Holiday Period Estimates

Studies have shown that safety belts are 45% effective in preventing fatalities. Although the reduction in the risk of fatal injury from wearing safety belts is higher for light-truck occupants at 50%, the lower figure for passenger car occupants is used in the calculations here as the more conservative measure. The most recent data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) indicate that safety belt use by fatally injured passenger car and light truck occupants was 43.4%. Based on this information it is estimated that 106 person’s lives may be saved this New Year’s Day holiday period because they will wear their safety belts and an additional 76 lives could be saved if all wore safety belts. 

The average number of traffic fatalities during the six most recent 3.25 day New Year’s Day holiday periods was 17.0% greater than similar non-holiday periods (402 vs. 344 deaths). The difference is statistically significant at the .05 level. 

The terms used in the above discussions were chosen carefully to reflect the level of accuracy of the quantities involved. Estimate is used because the fatality figures are calculated approximately, as opposed to the precision of calculation inferred by the use of the word predict. May is used to indicate the figures express a contingency, whereas will is used to express something that may be expected or is supposed to occur. 

New Year’s detail